Security Secured? Inside Europe’s 2028 LNG Import Plateau

Analysis by Dr. Timothy Crump, Head of Gas Fundamentals. 

Hormuz has put security of supply back on the agenda as Europe enters gas year 2026/27. By January 2028, Europe will have around 355 Bcm/y of firm LNG import capacity. After that, the committed build all but stops. Another 72 Bcm/y is proposed or possible, but none of it is yet committed.

Europe therefore does not simply need to ask whether it has enough import capacity. It needs to ask whether that capacity is firm, in the right place and still sufficient if demand or supply assumptions change. 

In the full analysis:

• What our Base Case says about European regas capacity – and why the answer isn't simply "enough" or "not enough"
• Why our 2030 utilisation view differs from IEEFA's, and what separates the two figures
• How our EU-27 demand outlook compares with Shell's
• Why Norwegian production is one of the biggest swing factors in Europe's future LNG requirement
• What we're watching next, from Germany's last two terminals to the next TAP market test

Read the full analysis – free with registration >>

This insight is based on the Base Case in Lumen by FGE NexantECA™, our scenario intelligence and decision-making platform. Want to test what happens if demand or Norwegian supply moves away from our Base Case? Request a free trial and build your own scenario.